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When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable?

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Luciani, Giacomo.
Other Authors: Moerenhout, Tom.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Singapore : Springer Singapore Pte. Limited, 2020.
Edition:1st ed.
Series:The Political Economy of the Middle East Series
Subjects:
Electronic books.
Online Access:Click to View
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Acknowledgements
  • Contents
  • Notes on Contributors
  • List of Figures
  • List of Tables
  • List of Boxes
  • Chapter 1: Introduction: Economic Sustainability of Oil Economies
  • 1 What Is Sustainable?
  • 2 What Is Unsustainable?
  • 3 This Book
  • 4 A Holistic, and Realistic, Picture
  • 5 Fiscal Sustainability
  • 6 Labor Market Reform
  • 7 Environmental Sustainability
  • 8 Sustainability of GCC development
  • Chapter 2: Framing the Economic Sustainability of Oil Economies
  • 1 Introduction: My First Visit to Abu Dhabi
  • 2 No Economy Is Sustainable Without Change
  • 3 Identifying Needed Change
  • 4 Diversification Has Taken Place
  • 5 Dutch Disease and Expatriate Labor
  • 6 The Productivity Issue
  • 7 Potential for Further Diversification and Defense of Hydrocarbons' Value
  • 7.1 Decarbonize the Production of Oil and Gas
  • 7.2 Carbon Capture and Sequestration
  • 7.3 Further Integrate Downstream Toward Non-fuel Uses
  • 7.4 The Hydrogen Economy
  • 8 Need for Developing Taxation
  • 9 Genuine Reliance on Private Sector
  • 10 Tackle Inequality
  • References
  • Chapter 3: Fiscal Sustainability, the Labor Market, and Growth in Saudi Arabia
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Sizing-Up the Macro Shock
  • 3 The Stabilization Challenge
  • 4 What Growth Strategy?
  • 5 The Central Challenge: Saudis Employability
  • 6 The Policy Agenda Ahead
  • 7 The Political Economy Challenge
  • References
  • Chapter 4: Outlook for Producer Economies
  • 1 Introduction: Risks to Producer Economies-Current Problems and Emerging Pressures
  • 2 How Do the Economic Pressures in Producer Economies Evolve Going Forward?
  • 3 The Macro-Economic Impact of the Two Scenarios
  • 4 The Future Role of a Competitive Energy Sector
  • 4.1 Capturing More Value from Hydrocarbons
  • 4.2 Using Natural Gas Strategically in Support of Diversification Goals.
  • 4.3 Tapping the Large, Underutilised Potential of Renewables
  • 4.4 Phasing Out Subsidised Use of Energy to Improve Its Efficiency
  • 4.5 Ensuring Adequate Investment for a Dynamic Upstream
  • 4.6 Supporting the Development of Cleaner and More Efficient Energy Technologies
  • 5 Implications and Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter 5: Economic Diversification in Arab Oil-Exporting Countries in the Context of Peak Oil and the Energy Transition
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 The Energy Transition and Perceptions of Peak Oil Demand
  • 3 The Implications for Arab Oil-Exporting Countries
  • 3.1 Oil Demand Is Unlikely to Increase Strongly Over the Next Two Decades
  • 3.2 Large Investments Will Still Be Needed in the Oil Sector to Fill the Gap in Supply
  • 3.3 Renewables Are at an Inflection Point
  • 4 The Strategic Role of the Oil Sector in the Energy Transition
  • 4.1 The Oil Sector Will Continue to Dominate the Economy, But it Needs to Play a More Active Role in the Diversification Process
  • 4.2 The Use of Demand-Side Measures to Optimise the Resource Base
  • 4.3 Renewables as a Complement to Economic Diversification Strategies
  • 5 The Role of Oil Policy and Producer Cooperation
  • 6 Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter 6: Economic Diversification and Sustainable Development of GCC Countries
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Trends in Production and Foreign Trade
  • 2.1 Exports and Imports
  • 2.2 Intermediate Consumption, Value Added and Output
  • 3 Economic Diversification of the GCC Countries in International Comparison
  • 3.1 Product Concentration and Product Diversification
  • 3.2 Economic Diversification of the Industrial Sector
  • 4 New Assessment for GCC Countries with Input-Output Data
  • 4.1 Traditional Input-Output Indicators for GCC Countries
  • 4.2 Primary Diversity Measure
  • 5 Sustainable Development of Nations: Adjusted Net National Income and Savings.
  • 5.1 Adjusted Net National Income
  • 5.2 Adjusted Net Saving
  • 5.3 Test for Sustainable Development
  • 6 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 7: Redefining Economic Sustainability in Resource-rich States: Comparative Lessons
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 The Changing Understanding of Economic Sustainability in Resource States
  • 3 Redefining Economic Sustainability
  • 3.1 Why a Redefinition Is Required
  • 3.2 A Redefinition: Back to Basics
  • 3.2.1 Growth in Theory
  • 3.2.2 An Elementary Numerical Simulation
  • 3.2.3 Natural Resources and Technology
  • 3.3 The Takeaway
  • 4 Lessons and Comparative Assessments
  • 4.1 Fiscal Rigor and Savings for Capital Accumulation
  • 4.2 Human Capital
  • 4.3 Technology, Institutions, and Taxes
  • 4.4 Industrial Reform and Regulation of Oligopolies
  • 5 Key Messages
  • Appendix 1: Classical Growth Model
  • Natural Resources and Technology
  • References
  • Chapter 8: Fuel and Electricity Reform for Economic Sustainability in the Gulf
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 The Triple Rationale of Low Energy Prices
  • 3 The Sustainability Rationale for Energy Pricing Reform, and Results in the GCC
  • 4 Fuel Pricing Reform in the GCC
  • 4.1 The 'Gradual' Fuel Price Reformers
  • 4.2 The 'Ad hoc' Fuel Price Reformers
  • 4.3 GCC Fuel Prices in Comparison
  • 5 GCC Electricity Pricing Reforms and Tariffs
  • 5.1 Cross-Subsidies Between Consumer Groups
  • 5.2 Blocked Tariff Designs
  • 5.3 Electricity Pricing Reforms and Tariffs in Comparison
  • 6 Commerce, Industry and Energy Pricing Reforms
  • 7 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 9: Fiscal Sustainability and Hydrocarbon Endowment Per Capita in the GCC
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Variations in GCC Hydrocarbon Endowments and Economic Sustainability
  • 3 Hydrocarbon Endowment Seen in Various Fiscal and Economic Indicators
  • 4 Fiscal Reform Momentum
  • 5 Phases in GCC Fiscal Reform.
  • 5.1 Phase 1: Expenditure Cutbacks and Subsidy Reforms in 2015 and 2016
  • 5.2 Phase 2: Reduction in Pace of Reform in 2017
  • Stabilization in Spending
  • 5.3 Phase 3: Shift to Expansionary Fiscal Stance from 2018
  • Introduction of VAT
  • 5.4 VAT Introduction, the Main Reform in Phase 3
  • 5.5 Measures to Support Growth
  • 6 Greatest Adjustment by Country
  • 7 Conclusion
  • Appendix A: Key Fiscal Reforms by GCC Countries
  • Appendix B: UAE Key Policies Announced to Support Economic Activity
  • References
  • Chapter 10: GCC Fiscal Reforms and Labor Market Policies
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 National Population Impacted by Reforms
  • Greatest Burden on Expatriates
  • 3 Hydrocarbon Endowment Per Capita and the Labor Market
  • 4 Labor Market Reforms and Policies to Reduce Foreign Labor
  • 5 Pressure on Expatriate Population and Economic Impact
  • 6 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 11: Economic Diversification and Job Creation in the Arab Gulf Countries: Applying a Value Chain Perspective
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Diversification in the Gulf Countries
  • 3 Value Chains
  • 4 The Challenge of Job Creation in the Gulf
  • 4.1 Diversification Within the Oil and Gas Sector
  • 4.2 Moving Downstream Via Technological 'Upskilling' in the Gulf Countries
  • 4.3 Upskilling of the National Labor Force
  • 5 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 12: Climate Strategy for Producer Countries: The Case of Saudi Arabia
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Contrasting Strategies
  • 3 Saudi Arabia's Climate Profile
  • 4 The Importance of Oil in Saudi Political Economy
  • 5 Strategy No. 1 "Dig In": Reduce Vulnerability of Oil Sector to Climate Action
  • 5.1 Climate Obstructionism
  • 5.2 Petrochemicals and Non-Combustion Uses for Crudes
  • 5.3 Differentiating Among Crude Oil Grades by Carbon Intensity
  • 5.4 Backing Internal Combustion Engines over EVs
  • 5.5 The 'Lock In' Strategy.
  • 6 Strategy No. 2 "Join In" Climate Action
  • 6.1 Renewables and Nuclear Power
  • 6.2 Social License to Operate
  • 7 Strategy No. 3 "Throw In" and Accept Climate Damage
  • 8 Conclusion: A Fourth Strategy
  • References
  • Chapter 13: The Sustainability of GCC Development Under the New Global Oil Order
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Growth and Institutions in the GCC: Resource Rents Threshold Matters
  • 3 Maintaining Civil Peace and Political Stability: Resource Rents Threshold also Matters
  • 3.1 Resource Rents, Threshold Effects and Civil Wars
  • 3.2 Resource Abundance, Threshold Effects and Democratic Transitions
  • 4 GCC Development Sustainability: Some Challenges Ahead
  • 5 Concluding Remarks
  • References
  • Chapter 14: When Can Oil Economies be Deemed Sustainable?
  • 1 The End of Oil
  • 2 Need for Diversification?
  • 3 Fiscal Sustainability
  • 3.1 The Difference between Rentiers and Super Rentiers
  • 3.2 Fiscal Adjustment
  • 3.3 Developing a Domestic Taxation Base
  • 4 Sustainability and the Labor Market
  • 5 Political Sustainability
  • 6 Can the GCC Economies Be Sustainable?.

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