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Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting.

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bengtsson, Tommy.
Other Authors: Keilman, Nico.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2019.
Edition:1st ed.
Series:Demographic Research Monographs
Subjects:
Electronic books.
Online Access:Click to View
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Preface
  • Contents
  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • 1.1 The Need for Accurate Mortality Forecasts Is Greater Than Ever Before
  • 1.2 Determinants and Dynamics of Life Expectancy - Pensions Are Upping the Ante for the Challenge Facing the Art of Projecting...
  • 1.3 Cause of Death Forecasts
  • 1.4 Period and Cohort Perspectives
  • 1.5 Joint Forecasting of Mortality in Similar Populations
  • 1.6 From Scenarios to Stochastic Modelling
  • 1.7 How Conditions in Early Life Affect Mortality in Later Life
  • 1.8 The Increasing Gap in Life Expectancy with Respect to Position in the Income Distribution
  • References
  • Part I: Current Practice
  • Chapter 2: Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes - A New Challenge for the Art of Projecti...
  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Basic Pension Economics - The Role of Mortality
  • 2.3 NDC and FDC Schemes - And Life Expectancy
  • 2.4 Itś More Important Than Ever to Project Life Expectancy Accurately
  • 2.5 Final Comments
  • References
  • Chapter 3: Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland
  • 3.1 Modeen and Törnqvist
  • 3.2 Official Forecasts
  • 3.3 Predictive Distribution of Mortality
  • 3.4 Applications
  • References
  • Chapter 4: Mortality Projections in Norway
  • 4.1 A Brief Description of the Norwegian Population Projection Model
  • 4.2 A Short History of Mortality Projections in Norway
  • 4.3 Current Methodology of Mortality Projections
  • 4.3.1 Target Life Expectancies
  • 4.3.2 Difference in Target e0 for Males and Females
  • 4.3.3 Life Expectancies in the First Projection Year
  • 4.3.4 Path of e0 from the Initial Until the Target Year
  • 4.3.5 Slope of e0 in the Target Year
  • 4.3.6 Alternative Mortality Assumptions
  • 4.3.7 Age Groups
  • 4.3.8 Cohort Mortality
  • 4.4 Age-Specific Trends in Mortality Rates
  • 4.5 Projections of Age-Specific Mortality Rates.
  • 4.6 Projection Results
  • References
  • Chapter 5: Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population Projection
  • 5.1 Mortality Projection in Sweden
  • 5.2 Sharply Lower Mortality in 1950-1999
  • 5.3 Reasons for the Decline in Mortality in 1980-1999
  • 5.4 Higher Average Life Expectancy in 1950-1999
  • 5.5 Future Mortality
  • 5.6 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Immediate Future
  • 5.7 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Longer Term
  • 5.8 Mortality Trends over the Period 1950-2050
  • 5.9 Higher Average Life Expectancy
  • 5.10 Assumptions Regarding Mortality Trends in Some Countries
  • 5.11 Alternative Assumptions
  • Chapter 6: Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach
  • References
  • Chapter 7: Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models - An Epidemiologistś Perspective
  • 7.1 Are the Lifespans of Relatives Correlated?
  • 7.2 The Relative Effects of Genetic and Environmental Factors on Lifespan
  • 7.3 Prediction of Mortality
  • 7.4 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 8: The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends
  • References
  • Part II: Probabilistic Models
  • Chapter 9: Erroneous Population Forecasts
  • 9.1 Forecast Accuracy
  • 9.2 Why Population Forecasts Are Inaccurate
  • 9.3 Empirical Evidence from Historical Forecasts
  • 9.3.1 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Short Than for Long Forecast Durations
  • 9.3.2 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Large Than for Small Populations
  • 9.3.3 Forecasts of the Old and the Young Tend to Be Less Accurate Than Those of Intermediate Age Groups
  • 9.3.4 Accuracy Differs Between Components and Regions
  • 9.4 The Expected Accuracy of Current Forecasts
  • 9.5 Probabilistic Forecasts: An Alternative to Forecast Variants
  • 9.6 Challenges in Probabilistic Population Forecasting
  • References.
  • Chapter 10: Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting
  • 10.1 Introduction
  • 10.2 Binomial and Poisson Models
  • 10.3 Random Rates
  • 10.4 Handling of Trends
  • 10.5 On Judgment and Subjectivity in Statistical Modeling
  • 10.6 On the Interpretation of Probabilities
  • 10.7 Eliciting Expert Views on Uncertainty
  • References
  • Chapter 11: An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands
  • 11.1 Introduction
  • 11.2 Stochastic Population Forecasts: Methodology
  • 11.2.1 An Analysis of Errors of Past Forecasts
  • 11.2.2 Model-Based Estimate of Forecast Errors
  • 11.2.3 Expert Judgement
  • 11.3 Using Expert Knowledge
  • 11.4 Expert Knowledge in the Dutch Stochastic Mortality Forecasts
  • 11.5 Conclusions
  • Appendix: An Explanatory Model for Dutch Mortality
  • References
  • Chapter 12: Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems
  • 12.1 Introduction
  • 12.2 Stochastic Forecasts
  • 12.3 Mortality Forecasts
  • 12.4 From Population to Pension Systems and Policy
  • References
  • Part III: The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects
  • Chapter 13: The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days
  • 13.1 Better Forecasts
  • 13.2 Continuing Belief in Looming Limits
  • References
  • Chapter 14: Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends
  • 14.1 Introduction
  • 14.2 Linear Change in Life Expectancy over Long Historical Periods
  • 14.3 What Is Fundamental, Age at Death or Risk of Death?
  • 14.4 Using These Findings to Improve Mortality Forecasts
  • 14.5 Considering National Mortality Change in an International Context
  • 14.6 Extensions
  • 14.6.1 Heterogeneous Targets
  • 14.6.2 Heterogeneous Rates of Convergence
  • 14.7 Forecasting Mortality
  • References
  • Chapter 15: Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series.
  • 15.1 Why Forecast Life Expectancy?
  • 15.2 Changes in Life Expectancy in 19 Industrialized Countries in 1950-2000
  • 15.3 Conditions on the Usefulness of an Auxiliary Series
  • 15.4 Model Choice
  • 15.5 Concluding Remarks
  • References
  • Chapter 16: Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income
  • 16.1 Limits and Convergence in Life Expectancy
  • 16.2 The Classic Article: Preston (1975)
  • 16.3 Extending the Analysis
  • 16.4 New Data
  • 16.5 National Effects: A Shopping Analogy
  • 16.6 Multilevel Models
  • 16.7 Model Results
  • 16.8 National Patterns
  • 16.9 Convergence
  • 16.10 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 17: Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present
  • 17.1 Descriptive Overview
  • 17.2 Causes
  • 17.3 Summary and Discussion
  • References
  • Part IV: Causes of Death
  • Chapter 18: How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update
  • 18.1 Extrapolation of Mortality by Cause Risks Absurdity
  • 18.2 Would More Sophisticated Methods Be Any Better?
  • 18.2.1 A Better Adjustment of Chronological Series of Rates by Age
  • 18.2.2 ``Age-Period ́́Adjustment (Lee-Carter Model)
  • 18.2.3 ``Age-Period-Cohort ́́Adjustment (APC Model)
  • 18.3 The Models Put to the Proof
  • 18.4 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 19: Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden - Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Appro...
  • 19.1 Introduction
  • 19.2 The Relationships Between Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality
  • 19.3 Extrapolating Mortality Trends or Predicting Disease-Specific Causes of Death
  • 19.4 Predicting Mortality Based on Potential Elimination of Causes of Death
  • 19.5 Predicting Mortality Based on Development of Risk Factors
  • 19.6 Methodological Problems in Predicting Mortality Based on Risk Factor Predictions.
  • 19.7 Future Mortality and Longevity
  • 19.8 Implications for the Future
  • References
  • Chapter 20: How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts
  • 20.1 Mortality Improvement in the UK
  • 20.2 Current Methodologies and Research in the UK
  • 20.3 Understanding the ``UK Cohort Effect ́́
  • 20.4 Modelling Mortality by Cause of Death
  • 20.5 Implications and Conclusions
  • References
  • Part V: Cohort Factors: How Conditions in Early Life Influence Mortality Later in Life
  • Chapter 21: A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and M...
  • 21.1 The Secular Mortality Decline: Early Life and Cohort Explanations and Their Indicators
  • 21.2 Historical Trends and Socioeconomic Mortality Differences in a Life Course and Cohort Perspective
  • 21.3 Cohort Effects on Mortality and Mortality Predictions: Indicators and Models
  • References
  • Chapter 22: Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies
  • 22.1 Introduction
  • 22.2 Famine Early in Life and Later Life Health
  • 22.3 Later Life Health for Twins
  • 22.4 Twins and Genetic Confounding
  • 22.5 Overview
  • References
  • Chapter 23: The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan
  • 23.1 Introduction
  • 23.2 Data
  • 23.3 Methods
  • 23.4 Results
  • 23.4.1 Differences in Lifespan in the United States, Austria, Denmark and Australia
  • 23.4.2 Changes in the Month-of-Birth Pattern over Cohorts in Denmark
  • 23.4.3 Changes in the 20-Year Survival Probability by Quarter of Birth in the United States
  • 23.5 Discussion
  • 23.6 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 24: Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium
  • 24.1 Introduction
  • 24.2 Models
  • 24.3 Data for Scania
  • 24.4 Data for Sart.
  • 24.5 Results.

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