Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals : Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-Energy GHG Pathways for +1. 5°C And +2°C.
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cham :
Springer International Publishing AG,
2019.
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| Edition: | 1st ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Click to View |
Table of Contents:
- Intro
- Dedication
- Climate Model: Foreword
- Contact Information
- Executive Summary
- Acknowledgement
- Contents
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- Chapter 1: Introduction
- References
- Chapter 2: State of Research
- 2.1 Scientific Status Quo of Climate Change Research
- 2.1.1 Basics of Climate Change and Radiative Forcing
- 2.1.1.1 Anthropogenic Contribution
- 2.1.1.2 Carbon Budget and Future Warming
- 2.1.2 Carbon Budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming
- 2.2 Development of Energy Markets-Past and Present
- 2.2.1 Global Trends in Renewable Energy in 2018
- 2.2.1.1 Trends in the Renewable Power Sector
- 2.2.1.2 Heating and Cooling
- 2.2.1.3 Transport
- References
- Chapter 3: Methodology
- 3.1 100% Renewable Energy-Modelling Approach
- 3.2 Global Mapping-Renewable Energy Potential in Space-Constrained Environments: [R]E-SPACE
- 3.3 Transport Energy Model-TRAEM
- 3.3.1 Transport Model Structure
- 3.3.2 Transport Data
- 3.3.3 Transport Model Output
- 3.4 Energy System Model (EM)
- 3.5 [R]E 24/7 (UTS-ISF)
- 3.5.1 [R]E 24/7-Model Structure
- 3.5.2 Development and Calculation of Load Curves
- 3.5.3 Load Curve Calculation for Households
- 3.5.4 Load Curve Calculation for Business and Industry
- 3.5.5 Load Distribution by Cluster
- 3.5.6 The [R]E 24/7 Dispatch Module
- 3.5.7 Meteorological Data
- 3.5.7.1 Solar and Wind Time Series
- 3.5.8 Interconnection Capacities
- 3.6 Employment Modelling (UTS-ISF)
- 3.6.1 Quantitative Employment Calculation
- 3.6.2 Occupational Employment Modelling
- 3.7 Material and Metal Resources Analysis (UTS-ISF)
- 3.7.1 Methodology-Material and Metal Resources Analysis
- 3.8 Climate Model
- 3.8.1 Deriving Non-CO2 GHG Pathways
- 3.8.1.1 Regional Definitions
- 3.8.1.2 Harmonization: Emission Category Adjustments
- 3.8.1.3 A New Quantile Regression Method for Non-CO2 Gases.
- 3.8.1.4 'Pseudo' Fossil and Industrial CO2 Extensions Beyond 2050
- 3.8.1.5 Land-Use Assumptions
- 3.8.2 Model for the Assessment of GHG-Induced Climate Change
- References
- Chapter 4: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG
- 4.1 Land-Use CO2 emissions
- 4.1.1 Other GHG and Aerosol Emissions
- References
- Chapter 5: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways
- 5.1 Scenario Definition
- 5.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario (Reference Scenario)
- 5.1.2 The 2.0 °C Scenario
- 5.1.3 The 1.5 °C Scenario
- 5.2 Scenario World Regions and Clusters
- 5.2.1 OECD North America
- 5.2.2 Latin America
- 5.2.3 OECD Europe
- 5.2.4 Eastern Europe/Eurasia
- 5.2.5 The Middle East
- 5.2.6 Africa
- 5.2.7 Non-OECD Asia
- 5.2.8 India
- 5.2.9 China
- 5.2.10 OECD Pacific
- 5.3 Key Assumptions for Scenarios
- 5.3.1 Population Growth
- 5.3.2 GDP Development
- 5.3.3 Technology Cost Projections
- 5.3.3.1 Power and CHP Technologies
- 5.3.3.2 Heating Technologies
- 5.3.4 Fuel Cost Projections
- 5.3.4.1 Fossil Fuels
- 5.3.4.2 Biomass Prices
- 5.3.5 CO2 Costs
- 5.4 Energy Scenario Narratives and Assumptions for World Regions
- 5.4.1 Efficiency and Energy Intensities
- 5.4.1.1 Industrial Electricity Demand
- 5.4.1.2 Demand for Fuel to Produce Heat in the Industry Sector
- 5.4.1.3 Electricity Demand in the 'Residential and Other' Sector
- 5.4.1.4 Fuel Demand for Heat in the 'Residential and Other' Sector
- 5.4.1.5 Resulting Energy Intensities by Region
- 5.4.2 RES Deployment for Electricity Generation
- 5.4.3 RES Deployment for Heat Generation
- 5.4.4 Co-generation of Heat and Power and District Heating
- 5.4.5 Other Assumptions for Stationary Processes
- References
- Chapter 6: Transport Transition Concepts
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Global Transport Picture in 2015
- 6.3 Measures to Reduce and Decarbonise Transport Energy Consumption.
- 6.3.1 Powertrain Electrification
- 6.3.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario
- 6.3.1.2 The 2.0 °C Scenario
- 6.3.1.3 The 1.5 °C Scenario
- 6.3.2 Mode-Specific Efficiency and Improvements Over Time
- 6.3.3 Road Transport
- 6.3.3.1 Passenger Cars
- 6.3.3.2 Light and Heavy Freight Vehicles
- 6.3.3.3 Buses
- 6.3.3.4 Two- and Three-Wheel Vehicles
- 6.3.3.5 Rail Transport
- 6.3.3.6 Water and Air Transport
- 6.3.4 Replacement of Fossil Fuels by Biofuels and Synfuels
- 6.3.5 Operational Improvements and Novel Service Concepts
- 6.3.5.1 Passenger Transport
- 6.3.5.2 Freight Transport
- 6.4 Transport Performance
- 6.4.1 Passenger Transport Modes
- 6.4.2 Freight Transport Modes
- References
- Chapter 7: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
- 7.1 Global Renewable Energy Potentials
- 7.1.1 Bioenergy
- 7.2 Economic Renewable Energy Potential in Space-Constrained Environments
- 7.2.1 Constrains for Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Power Plants
- 7.2.2 Mapping Solar and Wind Potential
- References
- Chapter 8: Energy Scenario Results
- 8.1 Global: Long-Term Energy Pathways
- 8.1.1 Global: Projection of Overall Energy Intensity
- 8.1.2 Global: Final Energy Demand by Sector (Excluding Bunkers)
- 8.1.3 Global: Electricity Generation
- 8.1.4 Global: Future Costs of Electricity Generation
- 8.1.5 Global: Future Investments in the Power Sector
- 8.1.6 Global: Energy Supply for Heating
- 8.1.7 Global: Future Investments in the Heating Sector
- 8.1.8 Global: Transport
- 8.1.9 Global: Development of CO2 Emissions
- 8.1.10 Global: Primary Energy Consumption
- 8.2 Global: Bunker Fuels
- 8.3 Global: Utilization of Solar and Wind Potential
- 8.4 Global: Power Sector Analysis
- 8.4.1 Global: Development of Power Plant Capacities
- 8.4.2 Global: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities
- 8.4.3 Global: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load.
- 8.4.4 Global System-Relevant Technologies-Storage and Dispatch
- 8.4.5 Global: Required Storage Capacities for the Stationary Power Sector
- 8.5 OECD North America
- 8.5.1 OECD North America: Long-Term Energy Pathways
- 8.5.1.1 OECD North America: Final Energy Demand by Sector
- 8.5.1.2 OECD North America: Electricity Generation
- 8.5.1.3 OECD North America: Future Costs of Electricity Generation
- 8.5.1.4 OECD North America: Future Investments in the Power Sector
- 8.5.1.5 OECD North America: Energy Supply for Heating
- 8.5.1.6 OECD North America: Future Investments in the Heating Sector
- 8.5.1.7 OECD North America: Transport
- 8.5.1.8 OECD North America: Development of CO2 Emissions
- 8.5.1.9 OECD North America: Primary Energy Consumption
- 8.5.2 Regional Results: Power Sector Analysis
- 8.5.3 OECD North America: Power Sector Analysis
- 8.5.3.1 OECD North America: Development of Power Plant Capacities
- 8.5.3.2 OECD North America: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities
- 8.5.3.3 OECD North America: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load
- 8.6 Latin America
- 8.6.1 Latin America: Long-Term Energy Pathways
- 8.6.1.1 Latin America: Final Energy Demand by Sector
- 8.6.1.2 Latin America: Electricity Generation
- 8.6.1.3 Latin America: Future Costs of Electricity Generation
- 8.6.1.4 Latin America: Future Investments in the Power Sector
- 8.6.1.5 Latin America: Energy Supply for Heating
- 8.6.1.6 Latin America: Future Investments in the Heating Sector
- 8.6.1.7 Latin America: Transport
- 8.6.1.8 Latin America: Development of CO2 Emissions
- 8.6.1.9 Latin America: Primary Energy Consumption
- 8.6.2 Latin America: Power Sector Analysis
- 8.6.2.1 Latin America: Development of Power Plant Capacities
- 8.6.2.2 Latin America: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities.
- 8.6.2.3 Latin America: Development of Load, Generation and Residual Load
- 8.7 OECD Europe
- 8.7.1 OECD Europe: Long-Term Energy Pathways
- 8.7.1.1 OECD Europe: Final Energy Demand by Sector
- 8.7.1.2 OECD Europe: Electricity Generation
- 8.7.1.3 OECD Europe: Future Costs of Electricity Generation
- 8.7.1.4 OECD Europe: Future Investments in the Power Sector
- 8.7.1.5 OECD Europe: Energy Supply for Heating
- 8.7.1.6 OECD Europe: Future Investments in the Heating Sector
- 8.7.1.7 OECD Europe: Transport
- 8.7.1.8 OECD Europe: Development of CO2 Emissions
- 8.7.1.9 OECD Europe: Primary Energy Consumption
- 8.7.2 OECD Europe: Power Sector Analysis
- 8.7.2.1 OECD Europe: Development of Power Plant Capacities
- 8.7.2.2 OECD Europe: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities
- 8.7.2.3 OECD Europe: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load
- 8.8 Africa
- 8.8.1 Africa: Long-Term Energy Pathways
- 8.8.1.1 Africa: Final Energy Demand by Sector
- 8.8.1.2 Africa: Electricity Generation
- 8.8.1.3 Africa: Future Costs of Electricity Generation
- 8.8.1.4 Africa: Future Investments in the Power Sector
- 8.8.1.5 Africa: Energy Supply for Heating
- 8.8.1.6 Africa: Future Investments in the Heating Sector
- 8.8.1.7 Africa: Transport
- 8.8.1.8 Africa: Development of CO2 Emissions
- 8.8.1.9 Africa: Primary Energy Consumption
- 8.8.2 Africa: Power Sector Analysis
- 8.8.2.1 Africa: Development of Power Plant Capacities
- 8.8.2.2 Africa: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities
- 8.8.2.3 Africa: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load
- 8.9 The Middle East
- 8.9.1 The Middle East: Long-Term Energy Pathways
- 8.9.1.1 The Middle East: Final Energy Demand by Sector
- 8.9.1.2 The Middle East: Electricity Generation
- 8.9.1.3 The Middle East: Future Costs of Electricity Generation.
- 8.9.1.4 The Middle East: Future Investments in the Power Sector.