Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/233391583898995644/Supporting-Electrification-Policy-in-Fragile-States-A-Conflict-Adjusted-Geospatial-Least-Cost-Approach-for-Afghanistan http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33464 |
| Summary: | Roughly two billion people live in areas
that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and
instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is
very difficult to implement and fund. As an example,
electrification systems face major challenges such as
ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of
power supply. This paper presents electrification results
from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks
of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial,
least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk
premium adjustments are introduced per technology and
location in order to examine changes in electrification
outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost
optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local
context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations
create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some
cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural
areas, electrification options are more sensitive to
conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify
these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters,
and present policy recommendations for universal
electrification of Afghanistan by 2030. |
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