Sustaining the Recovery in Times of Uncertainty : A Regional Economic Outlook
This edition of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional economic update shows that recovery in the region is below historical trends. Its economic prospects depend on global developments and continued strengths in emerging-market demand an...
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| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/223091468032338341/Sustaining-the-recovery-in-times-of-uncertainty http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27917 |
| Summary: | This edition of the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) regional economic update shows that
recovery in the region is below historical trends. Its
economic prospects depend on global developments and
continued strengths in emerging-market demand and oil price
trends. Growth in the region is expected to average 4% in
2010, an increase of slightly less than 2 percentage points
(pp) over growth in 2009 and weak compared to increases of
5.6pp in advanced economies and 4.5pp in developing nations.
Only by 2011 and 2012 is MENA s growth expected to return to
the average rates achieved prior to the economic and
financial crisis. Recovery has been driven by the global
economic rebound and, to varying degrees, by domestic
stimulus. Industrial production, which in MENA is dominated
by oil, has nearly reached its pre-crisis peak, largely due
to the strong recovery in emerging markets, especially Asia.
However, the upturn has weakened in recent months because
the global slowdown has arrived sooner and is occurring
faster than previously anticipated, and there are serious
concerns about the sustainability of the global recovery. In
response, MENA governments have continued to stimulate their
economies in 2010, and even those that did not use any type
of fiscal stimulus in 2009 have started implementing fiscal
measures in 2010. The economic recovery in MENA has been
much less vigorous than the recovery in countries that
suffered sharp output contractions. The sustainability of
the recovery in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies
depends on developments in the rest of the world, and on the
extent to which they affect oil markets. The outlook for the
global economy and oil markets in the second half of 2010
remains uncertain, and a decline in oil prices cannot be
ruled out. |
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