The Trade Performance of the Middle East and North Africa
This paper characterizes the trade performance of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past 15 years. Cross-section results show that MENA's exports to the outside world were only one third of their potential in recent years, after...
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/623021468279879364/The-trade-performance-of-the-Middle-East-and-North-Africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27378 |
| Summary: | This paper characterizes the trade
performance of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over
the past 15 years. Cross-section results show that
MENA's exports to the outside world were only one third
of their potential in recent years, after controlling for
the standard determinants of trade. Results from panel data
show that MENA's exports have been expanding more
rapidly than exports from the rest of the world, offering
some evidence of convergence. Still, at historical growth
rates, it would take 20 years for MENA countries to reach
potential trade. When we exclude natural resources, exports
are also only one third of the benchmark, but the improved
export performance over time is much slower and implies it
could take twice as long to reach potential. Interestingly,
while MENA also under-trades within the region, the extent
of under-trading is less acute than with the outside world.
There is, however, no indication of more rapid regional
integration over time, suggesting that recent trade
agreements among MENA countries have not stimulated regional
trade to a greater extent than external trade. Finally, the
report examines intra-industry trade, which has
characterized world trade growth over the period. East Asia
and Europe show large and rising intra-industry trade, both
globally and regionally, reflecting increased trade in
differentiated goods and the expansion of supply chains.
Despite neighboring these regions, the MENA countries have
been largely left out of this transformation. |
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