Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility - Posner, Kenneth A.; ProQuest (Firm) (New York : Columbia Business School Publishing, 2010)
Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest, 2015. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest affiliated libraries.
Keywords: Investment analysis; Investments -- Forecasting; Business cycles; Recessions; Electronic books